NFL Week 15 best and worst coaching decisions: Bucs' plan fuels Baker Mayfield's big day (2024)

Cover 7|TuesdayA daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Tuesday,Ted Nguyenanalyzes the best and worst coaching decisions he saw during the week’s games.

Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady completes the ever-elusive process of building a rushing attack to complement Josh Allen. The Buccaneers relentlessly attack holes in the Packers’ heavy zone scheme. It’s getting increasingly harder to defend Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, and it’s time to end the Kadarius Toney experiment in Kansas City. We’ll get into all this and more in this week’s best and worst coaching decisions.

Likes

Bills leaning into the run game

“I felt like the kid that didn’t do anything on the class project but got an A,” quarterback Josh Allen said after passing for only 94 yards in the Bills’ 31-10 beatdown of the Cowboys.

If I had told you Allen would pass for less than 100 yards and the Bills would thoroughly beat one of the top teams in the NFC, would you have believed me? Probably not. The Bills offense the last few years has been completely reliant on Allen’s play-making ability. It was odd to see this offense firing on all cylinders with Allen only attempting 15 passes.

The “Cook Index” is measured by “how frequently teams pass the ball on first and second downs in the first 28 minutes of regulation, before time remaining and score differential influence run-pass tendencies.” The Bills had the third-lowest Cook Index rate of Allen’s career. They haven’t had a game more run-heavy since Allen’s second season in 2019. They had a rushing success rate of 62.8 percent on 46 carries (not including kneel-downs).

Brady did an excellent job of mixing up personnel groupings and formations throughout the game. The Cowboys had a lot of trouble matching up with the Bills’ heavier personnel groupings like 12 (one back, two tight ends, two receivers) or 21 pony personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two receivers). The threat of Allen’s arm likely scared Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to match with base personnel and the Cowboys’ nickel group was physically overwhelmed play after play.

15:00 remaining in the fourth quarter, second-and-8

The Bills were getting a lot of yardage off of zone-read plays in which the running back crosses the quarterback’s face to receive the handoff. So if he’s offset to the right, he has to go left to get the handoff and vice versa. They were also getting a lot of production from tackle pull traps. I like the run concept in the diagram above because it plays off of both zone read and tackle trap. The play is essentially a tackle trap but with the running back using counter footwork.

James Cook was offset to Allen’s left, went right to get the handoff and slithered back to the left. Right tackle Spencer Brown pulled to the left to trap Micah Parsons.

Parsons stayed squared and squeezed like he was playing zone read, which allowed the Bills to outflank him.

Parsons was so far inside that Brown didn’t even have to block him. He just pushed him inside with one arm and continued upfield to look for a block in the secondary. Allen ran out to lead block but just sort of served as a semi-screen, and Cook got outside for a gain of 17 yards.

McDaniel’s creative run game designs

About 10 years ago, NFL schemes were vanilla, generic and boring. Offensive coordinators were all married to their “pro-style schemes,” and everyone was just running different versions of the same offenses. Now, we have outside zone offenses, pass-happy teams, option teams, and then there’s the Miami Dolphins offense. Head coach Mike McDaniel is from the Shanahan tree, but his offense has evolved to find-any-plays-to-showcase-speed. Their ground game is built on the ability to get outside. When you run outside as much as they do, you have to find a way to change up the looks you give a defense. You can’t just keep simply tossing the ball outside because eventually, the defense is just going to spread out and fast flow outside.

Throughout the season, McDaniel has experimented successfully with different actions to get the ball outside, drawing inspiration from everywhere including high school Wing-T teams. Against the Jets, the Dolphins staff looked to have created a new way of getting the ball to the perimeter.

1:02 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-goal

On first-and-goal from the 1-yard line, the Dolphins lined up in a pistol formation and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa motioned tight end Durham Smythe across the formation to double-team the edge with left tackle Terron Armstead.

Running back Raheem Mostert opened with his right foot like he was running zone read inside. Tagovailoa also opened up to the right like he would on zone read.

Mostert and Tagovailoa’s footwork caused the Jets’ second-level defenders to freeze to get ready to defend an inside run.

Mostert then sprinted outside to the left and Tagovailoa twirled around to pitch him the ball. The Dolphins had the edge blocked, and Mostert was able to walk across the goal line with no pursuit coming from the second level.

Raheem Mostert has 20 (TWENTY!) touchdowns this season!

📺: #NYJvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/jSNoNCx52w

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023

The Dolphins’ injury-riddled offensive line was getting destroyed by the Jets’ defensive line, so having these perimeter plays in the game plan was necessary.

Bucs attacking the seams

Baker Mayfield went into Lambeau Field and dominated, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns and finishing with a perfect quarterback rating. The Packers played zone on 81.7 percent of dropbacks against the Bucs, so offensive coordinator Dave Canales repeatedly attacked them down the seams. On plays that target the seams (variations of four verts, hitch/seam combos), Mayfield was six of seven for 135 yards and two touchdowns (19.3 yards per attempt). I liked the variation of plays they used to attack that area of the field.

11:01 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-5

On the Packers’ 26-yard line, the Bucs lined up in a compressed formation, which usually invites soft zone. The Packers were in Cover 3, which is the best coverage to run four verticals against. This was a creative variation with receiver Deven Thompkins going in orbit return motion to serve as eye candy and running back Rachaad White running down the seam.

After the snap, Mayfield pump faked to Thompkins, which got the Packers linebackers to bite underneath.

The free safety was pulled horizontally by tight end Cade Otton, leaving White wide open for the touchdown.

Baker threads the needle to Rachaad White for the TD 🪡

📺: #TBvsGB on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/BV9u17ZEls

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023

12:27 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-6

On third-and-6 on the Packers’ 19-yard line, the Bucs lined up a loose bunch formation with receiver Mike Evans lined up at the point. Though there were only two verticals, this play created the same effect as four verticals because it stressed the free safety. Receiver David Moore lined up inside and ran across the safety’s face, while Evans ran down the seam (top of the numbers). Without a third vertical outside of Evans to occupy the corner, Evans needed to beat him with a move at the top of the route, which he did beautifully.

Mike Evans' 9️⃣2️⃣nd career receiving TD gives the @Buccaneers the lead!

📺: #TBvsGB on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kw7mays4qU pic.twitter.com/GwPPhASGzv

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023

Dislikes

Tomlin punting the game away

It’s hard to win in the NFL without a good quarterback. Mike Tomlin hasn’t had one since the Steelers were dragging out a shell of Ben Roethlisberger at the tail end of his career. Roethlisberger wasn’t good in his final season, but the Steelers have failed to field a quarterback who could even match his level of production at age 39 since. Tomlin still has his 17-year streak of never finishing with a losing record, but it’s in jeopardy this season. The Steelers were pummeled by the Colts on Saturday, but they had a glimmer of hope of getting back into the game in the third quarter. However, Tomlin punted their chances away.

With 3:25 remaining in the third quarter, the Steelers were down by 11 points. They drove the ball to the Colts’ 29-yard line but committed a holding penalty to back them up to the 39, putting them in a third-and-14 situation. Mitchell Trubisky tried to throw a deep pass that fell incomplete. Instead of letting kicker Chris Boswell attempt a 57-yard field goal in a dome, the Steelers punted the ball, which netted 22 yards. Last week, Boswell nailed a 56-yard field goal outdoors in Pittsburgh, so he certainly has the range. I don’t understand the decision to forgo the chance to cut the lead to one possession.

Time to end the Toney experiment

Kadarius Toney has special movement skills. He can burst and change direction with some of the top athletes in the NFL, but none of that matters because he’s also one of the most unreliable players in the league. Early in his career, he couldn’t stay healthy. Now that he has been healthy this season, he just continues to make game-changing mistakes.

He dropped two passes in Week 1, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Last week, he lined up offsides and didn’t check with the referee to see if he was set on what should have been one of the coolest game-winning touchdowns that we’ll ever see.

This week, Andy Reid might have been trying to send a message that he still believes in Toney, giving him an opportunity to redeem himself. Toney ran more routes this week than he has in any other game as a Chief.

Early in the fourth quarter, they called a juke route for him. He got open but dropped a perfectly thrown ball into the hands of a Patriots defender. He’s had five drops and only 27 catches on 38 targets this season. The Chiefs don’t have a lot of receiving talent, but you simply can’t keep throwing to Toney downfield and expecting different results. It’s time to stop the Toney-as-a-receiver experiment. You can hand him a fly sweep, throw him a screen here and there, or use him as a punt returner, but that should be the extent of his usage.

Patrick Mahomes after his pass to Kadarius Toney hits his hands and is then intercepted. 😡 pic.twitter.com/D6Ydut5Lbs

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) December 17, 2023

Peak Jaguar-ing

The Jaguars got the ball past the Ravens’ 40-yard line on four separate trips in the first half and came away without a point.

Kicker Brandon McManus missed two field goals on the first two trips into Ravens’ territory. On the third trip, the ball just slipped out of quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s hands on a scramble, and the fumble was recovered by the Ravens. On the next drive, with 30 seconds left in the half, Lawrence threw a beautiful pass 36-yard moon ball to Zay Jones to get the Jaguars to the Ravens’ 5-yard line. Without a timeout, they had to rush to the line and either spike the ball or run a play. They chose to run a play with the clock winding below 11 seconds. Only, it was a terrible play. Lawrence threw a one-yard pass to Parker Washington, and he was tackled inbounds. The Jaguars didn’t have enough time to spike, and time expired.

I have no problem running a play in that situation, and it was probably the right decision to try to sneak in an extra play rather than just spiking the ball, but the play called didn’t make any sense. I’m not sure if it was one that they have specifically for these situations or if it was called through Lawrence’s headset, but throwing a pass short of the end zone leaves no room for error. The play was a throw to the flats to the slot with the outside receiver blocking. I’ve seen this situation multiple times in which the offense hits on a big play to get into the red zone. I always thought the best option is a goal-line fade because you can run it quickly without having to worry about the protection, and if you don’t get the right look, you can just throw it out of bounds. Regardless of how you do it, you have to throw the ball in the end zone in that situation. You can’t waste opportunities against this Ravens defense, and the Jaguars squandered all of them.

(Top photo of Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales: David Berding / Getty Images)

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order ithere.

Ted Nguyen is a NFL staff writer for The Athletic. He breaks down film to uncover the story that the X's and O's tell. He also covers the latest trends around the league and covers the draft. Follow Ted on Twitter @FB_FilmAnalysis