AccuWeather predicts 'explosive' 2024 hurricane season that could break record (2024)

An average hurricane season has 14 named storms. 2024 may double that.

AccuWeatherhas released its first official prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

It doesn't look good, and Florida won't be immune from the potential impact of named storms, especially the Panhandle and South Florida, according to AccuWeather.

AccuWeather is predicting an "explosive" hurricane season that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a season.

“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”

Meteorologists warned people and businesses to start preparing now for the upcoming season. In fact, AccuWeather forecasters said there are signs now the first named system of the season could spin up before June 1, which is the official start of the season.

TheNational Hurricane Center and Colorado State University will release their first predictions in the coming weeks.

Indications as early as February have had forecasters on edge, predicting it will be an active season due to the combination ofLa Niña and record warm water temperaturesin the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin is made up of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeather forecast for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Here's the AccuWeather forecast for the upcoming season:

• 20-25 named storms
• 8-12 hurricanes
• 4-7 major hurricanes
• 4-6 direct U.S. impacts
• Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas face heightened risk.
• Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.

2024 Atlantic hurricane season could break all-time record of 30 named storms

The AccuWeather 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast calls for 20 to 25 named storms. Eight to 12 of those storms are forecast to strengthen into hurricanes. Four to six storms could directly impact the United States.

“There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more named storms this year. Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020,” said DaSilva.

Factors contributing to active hurricane season

AccuWeather meteorologists pointed to four conditions expected to bring such an active season:

• Ocean temperatures are well above historical averages.
  • "Warm water can act as fuel for tropical systems to rapidly intensify into powerful and destructive hurricanes."
• The change from El Niño to La Niña.
  • La Niña brings less wind shear to Atlantic waters. When combined with warm water, those are "prime conditions for tropical development," AccuWeather said.
• Weather patterns in Africa.
  • La Niña could have an impact here, too, promoting a stronger African easterly jet stream, which can boost the African monsoon. That "could lead to more robust tropical waves — which could bring more tropical storms — later in the season," AccuWeather said.
• Changes in locations and strengths of steering winds.
  • Warmer water temperatures could shift the Bermuda-Azores High farther south and east. That could result in tropical systems re-curving in the western Atlantic and another period of storms reaching the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Florida WeatherTiger's early prediction calls for 'hyperactive' season

The warm water temperatures combined with La Niña means there is high confidence for a "hyperactive" season, with the "the core uncertainty is therefore whether the upcoming hurricane season will be crazy busy, or merely pretty busy," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.

The 2024 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of 20-24 tropical storms, nine to 12 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes.

"Our model boldly suggests a 10% to 15% chance that 2024 bests 1933’s record for the most intense season."

When does hurricane season begin?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30.

Storms can and do form before and after those dates, though.

Both La Niña and El Niño tend to reachpeak intensityfrom fall through winter, according to AccuWeather.

The busiest portion of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from August through October, with the peak being Sept. 10.

How busy was the 2023 hurricane season?

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was thefourth busiest season since 1950, according to theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.

The season was "characterized byrecord-warm Atlantic sea surface temperaturesand a strong El Niño," according to NOAA. El Niño typically helps prevent tropical cyclones from developing.

Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes.Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane that made landfall in the U.S. The Category 3 storm came ashore Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, in Florida's Big Bend region, NOAA reported.

How many tropical cyclones does an average hurricane season have?

Based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, and a storm is classified as a Category 3 when maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, according to NOAA.

The first named storm typically forms in mid to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.

AccuWeather sounded early 'alarm bells' for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

In February, months before the first official pre-season forecasts were due to come out, AccuWeather forecasters issued "alarm bells" for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The combination of a building La Niña and historically warm water will lay the groundwork for a blockbuster season, AccuWeather said in February.

Cooler waters in the Pacific during a La Niña year mean less wind shear and more hurricane activity. And that's without adding warm ocean temperatures, which fuel tropical cyclones.

Early alarm bells for 2024 season: AccuWeather sounding 'alarm bells' for supercharged 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

What is La Niña

La Niñais a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite to the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is warmer than average.

La Niña can bring more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin by weakening wind shear.

When there is no or reduced wind shear, that allows tropical cyclones to develop and intensify.

Wind shear, when present, tears apart developing storms or can even prevent them from forming.

National Hurricane Center making several changes for 2024 hurricane season

TheNational Hurricane Centerwill bring out anexperimental tropical cyclone forecast conegraphic just in time for the busiest months of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The new cone will addtropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for interior counties in the pathof the storm. The current cone displays watches and warnings only for coastal counties.

NHC new cone of uncertainty: National Hurricane Center experimenting with new cone this season

Watches and warnings for interior counties has been provided by local National Weather Service offices. The new graphic will combine tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings into a single graphic.NHC making more changes during 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

More changes coming from NHC this season include:

• Tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings will be issued for intermediate advisories in addition to the full advisories.
• Tropical storm wind radius forecasts will go out five days instead of three days.
• The National Hurricane Center will expand information provided in Spanish to include:
  • All public advisories.
  • The tropical cyclone discussion.
  • The tropical cyclone update.
  • Key messages.

Hurricane names for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Francine
• Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joyce
• Kirk
• Leslie
• Milton
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sara
• Tony
• Valerie
• William